Nate Silver’s Final Call Hours Before Polls Close – Will This Be His Most Accurate Prediction Yet?
In a last-minute twist, pollster Nate Silver has declared the 2024 election between Democrat Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump as one of the tightest races in American history. Just hours before polls close, Silver released his final prediction, calling the outcome “literally closer than a coin flip.” After running 80,000 model simulations, he found Harris winning 50.015% of the time compared to Trump’s 49.985%—a razor-thin margin that underscores the intense division in this year’s electorate.
Silver’s data shows Harris taking 40,012 of his simulated matchups, while Trump secured 39,718—a gap so narrow it highlights the unprecedented uncertainty around tonight’s results. This marks one of the closest predictions Silver has ever made in his career, spanning five presidential races. Adding to the suspense, some scenarios even resulted in a deadlocked 269-269 Electoral College tie, which would shift the decision to the Republican-controlled House, a process likely to favor Trump.
Silver pinpointed key battlegrounds like Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Nevada, and Michigan as the ultimate deciders in this nail-biting race. His analysis shows Harris ahead by a mere one-point national polling average (48.6% to 47.6%) and holding a slim edge in Michigan and Wisconsin. But Trump has the upper hand in several other swing states, positioning him for potential surprise wins that could tilt the outcome in his favor.
The final forecasts from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics similarly show Harris holding a fractional lead, both giving her a 1.2-point advantage over Trump. As votes begin to roll in, all eyes will be on these pivotal states to see if Silver’s ultra-close prediction holds true, potentially making this election one for the history books.
Mark Van der Veen offers some of the most analytical and insightful writings on politics. He regularly opines on the motives and political calculations of politicians and candidates, and whether or not their strategy will work. Van der Veen offers a contrast to many on this list by sticking mainly to a fact-based style of writing that is generally combative with opposing ideologies.
